{
  "format_version": 3,
  "claim_natural": "More Americans were killed in Chicago shootings over a four-week period in March 2026 than US service members killed in action in the US-Israel Iran war to date.",
  "claim_formal": {
    "subject": "Comparison of Chicago shooting fatalities vs. US KIA in Iran war",
    "property": "Chicago shooting deaths in a 4-week March 2026 window vs. US KIA to date",
    "operator": ">",
    "operator_note": "'Killed in Chicago shootings' is interpreted as people fatally shot in Chicago (i.e., 'shot & killed' in CPD terminology \u2014 a subset of total homicides, excluding stabbings, beatings, etc.). 'Four-week period in March 2026' is interpreted as any 28-consecutive-day window within March 1-31, 2026. Since March has 31 days, the minimum 4-week subset would contain at least 28/31 of the monthly total. 'Killed in action' (KIA) is the standard military classification for service members killed by enemy fire, distinct from non-hostile deaths (accidents, etc.). The Pentagon's DCAS listed 7 KIA as of April 8, 2026. Even under the broadest interpretation (all 13 US military deaths including non-hostile), the comparison still holds. 'To date' is interpreted as of the proof generation date (April 18, 2026). A ceasefire was in effect as of April 8, 2026, so no additional KIA are expected since then.",
    "threshold": 0,
    "is_time_sensitive": true
  },
  "evidence": {
    "B1": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "B1: Military Times \u2014 7 US service members killed by enemy fire (KIA) in Operation Epic Fury (sourced from Pentagon DCAS data)",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "Military Times (sourced from Pentagon DCAS data)",
        "url": "https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/04/08/pentagon-data-13-us-troops-killed-346-wounded-in-operation-epic-fury/",
        "quote": "the department listed seven service members as having been killed by enemy fire during the operation"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "militarytimes.com",
          "source_type": "unknown",
          "tier": 2,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Unclassified domain \u2014 verify source authority manually"
        }
      }
    },
    "B2": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "B2: Military Times \u2014 13 total US service members killed in Operation Epic Fury (sourced from CENTCOM)",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "Military Times (sourced from CENTCOM)",
        "url": "https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/04/08/pentagon-data-13-us-troops-killed-346-wounded-in-operation-epic-fury/",
        "quote": "13 U.S. service members have been killed and 381 have been wounded, according to U.S. Central Command"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "militarytimes.com",
          "source_type": "unknown",
          "tier": 2,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Unclassified domain \u2014 verify source authority manually"
        }
      }
    },
    "B3": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "B3: HeyJackass.com \u2014 2026 YTD Chicago shot & killed totals (sourced from CPD/CFD/ME data)",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "HeyJackass.com (sourced from CPD/CFD/ME data)",
        "url": "https://heyjackass.com/",
        "quote": "Year to Date Shot & Killed: 112 Shot & Wounded: 374 Total Shot: 486 Total Homicides: 124"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "heyjackass.com",
          "source_type": "unknown",
          "tier": 2,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Unclassified domain \u2014 verify source authority manually"
        }
      }
    },
    "B4": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "B4: NBC Chicago \u2014 Chicago murders up 16% in March 2026, 32 shootings in one week (sourced from CPD crime statistics)",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "NBC Chicago (sourced from CPD crime statistics)",
        "url": "https://www.nbcchicago.com/investigations/shootings-up-78-in-chicago-in-one-week-as-city-suffers-two-month-murder-surge/3916370/",
        "quote": "murders citywide have also surged in the past two months: increasing 16% in March and 18% in February compared to a year ago"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "nbcchicago.com",
          "source_type": "unknown",
          "tier": 2,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Unclassified domain \u2014 verify source authority manually"
        }
      }
    },
    "B5": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "B5: CBS Chicago \u2014 4 killed in weekend shootings March 20-23, 2026",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "CBS Chicago",
        "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/chicago-weekend-shootings-march-20-to-23/",
        "quote": "At least four people were killed, and 17 people were hurt in weekend shootings across Chicago"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_type": "major_news",
          "tier": 3,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Major news organization"
        }
      }
    },
    "B6": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "B6: CBS Chicago \u2014 3 killed in weekend shootings March 13-16, 2026",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "CBS Chicago",
        "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/chicago-weekend-shootings-march-13-to-16/",
        "quote": "At least three people were killed, and 11 others were injured in weekend shootings across Chicago"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_type": "major_news",
          "tier": 3,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Major news organization"
        }
      }
    },
    "B7": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "B7: CBS Chicago \u2014 5 killed in weekend shootings Feb 27-Mar 2, 2026",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "CBS Chicago",
        "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/chicago-weekend-shootings-feb-27-to-march-2/",
        "quote": "At least five people were killed, and 18 others were injured in weekend shootings across Chicago"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_type": "major_news",
          "tier": 3,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Major news organization"
        }
      }
    },
    "A1": {
      "type": "computed",
      "label": "A1: Compute March 2026 shot & killed from YTD minus April-to-date",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "method": "ytd_shot_killed - apr_shot_killed",
      "result": "93.0",
      "depends_on": [
        "B3"
      ]
    },
    "A2": {
      "type": "computed",
      "label": "A2: Estimate minimum 4-week shooting deaths (28/31 of monthly total)",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "method": "march_shooting_deaths * 28/31",
      "result": "33.329032258064515",
      "depends_on": [
        "A1"
      ]
    },
    "A3": {
      "type": "computed",
      "label": "A3: Comparison \u2014 Chicago 4-week shooting deaths > US KIA",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "method": "None",
      "result": "None",
      "depends_on": [
        "A2",
        "B1"
      ]
    }
  },
  "cross_checks": [
    {
      "description": "US deaths internal consistency (7 KIA + 6 non-hostile = 13 total)",
      "fact_ids": [
        "B1",
        "B2"
      ],
      "agreement": true,
      "values_compared": [
        "7",
        "13"
      ],
      "tolerance": "0 absolute"
    },
    {
      "description": "Weekend shooting deaths corroborate monthly rate",
      "fact_ids": [
        "B5",
        "B6",
        "B7",
        "B3"
      ],
      "agreement": true,
      "values_compared": [
        "12",
        "37"
      ],
      "tolerance": "directional (weekends deadlier than average, consistent with data)"
    }
  ],
  "adversarial_checks": [
    {
      "question": "Could there be additional US KIA not yet reported that would change the comparison?",
      "verification_performed": "Searched for 'US service member killed Iran war April 2026' and 'Operation Epic Fury casualties update April 2026'. A ceasefire between the US and Iran took effect on April 8, 2026. No additional KIA have been reported since. The Intercept reported concerns about undercounting of wounded, but the killed count of 7 KIA / 13 total has not been disputed.",
      "finding": "No additional KIA reported. Even with potential future casualties, the current 7 KIA is far below Chicago's ~33+ shooting deaths in any 4-week March window. The margin (26+) is too large for plausible undercounting to close.",
      "breaks_proof": false
    },
    {
      "question": "Is 'killed in action' being interpreted too narrowly? Should the comparison use all 13 US deaths rather than just 7 KIA?",
      "verification_performed": "Checked standard military terminology. 'Killed in action' (KIA) specifically denotes deaths caused by enemy action. The 6 KC-135 crew deaths were classified by the Pentagon as 'non-hostile' (aircraft accident during support operations). However, even using the broader count of 13 total US military deaths, the claim still holds.",
      "finding": "Under strict KIA definition (7), claim holds by factor of ~5x. Under broadest interpretation (all 13 deaths), claim still holds: ~33 > 13. Interpretation choice does not affect verdict.",
      "breaks_proof": false
    },
    {
      "question": "Could 'killed in Chicago shootings' include non-fatal shooting victims, which would inflate the count?",
      "verification_performed": "Checked claim language. 'Killed in Chicago shootings' unambiguously means fatally shot \u2014 the verb 'killed' restricts to deaths. The 137 'shooting victims' reported by CPD includes both fatal and non-fatal; the proof uses only the 'shot & killed' subset (~37 of the 41 March homicides).",
      "finding": "The proof correctly uses only fatal shooting victims, not total shooting victims. No inflation.",
      "breaks_proof": false
    },
    {
      "question": "Is the 41 March homicide figure accurate? Could it be disputed?",
      "verification_performed": "Multiple independent outlets report the same CPD data: WTTW (April 3, 2026), NBC Chicago (March 31, 2026), and the HeyJackass tracker (which derives from CPD/CFD/Medical Examiner data). The 16% year-over-year increase (from 35 in March 2025 to 41 in March 2026) is consistently reported. HeyJackass YTD data (112 shot & killed through April 18, minus 19 April-to-date = 93 Q1 shot & killed) is consistent with ~37 shooting deaths in March alone.",
      "finding": "Multiple independent outlets confirm the figure. No dispute found.",
      "breaks_proof": false
    }
  ],
  "verdict": {
    "value": "PROVED",
    "qualified": false,
    "qualifier": null,
    "reason": null
  },
  "key_results": {
    "chicago_march_shooting_deaths_est": 36.9,
    "chicago_4week_min": 33.329032258064515,
    "us_kia_strict": 7,
    "us_total_killed": 13,
    "claim_holds_strict": true,
    "claim_holds_broad": true,
    "margin_strict": 26.329032258064515,
    "margin_broad": 20.329032258064515
  },
  "generator": {
    "name": "proof-engine",
    "version": "1.23.0",
    "repo": "https://github.com/yaniv-golan/proof-engine",
    "generated_at": "2026-04-18"
  },
  "proof_py_url": "/proofs/chicago-shootings-vs-iran-war-kia/proof.py",
  "citation": {
    "doi": null,
    "concept_doi": null,
    "url": "https://proofengine.info/proofs/chicago-shootings-vs-iran-war-kia/",
    "author": "Proof Engine",
    "cite_bib_url": "/proofs/chicago-shootings-vs-iran-war-kia/cite.bib",
    "cite_ris_url": "/proofs/chicago-shootings-vs-iran-war-kia/cite.ris"
  },
  "depends_on": []
}