{
  "format_version": 3,
  "claim_formal": {
    "subject": "Lightning",
    "property": "whether lightning can strike the same location more than once",
    "operator": ">=",
    "operator_note": "The claim asserts lightning NEVER strikes the same place twice \u2014 an absolute universal negative. To DISPROVE this, we need authoritative sources confirming that lightning DOES strike the same place repeatedly. A threshold of 3 independent authoritative sources confirming repeated strikes is used. The claim is disproved if >= 3 sources confirm it is false.",
    "threshold": 3,
    "proof_direction": "disprove"
  },
  "claim_natural": "Lightning never strikes the same place twice.",
  "evidence": {
    "B1": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "NWS Lightning Myths page: lightning often strikes same place repeatedly",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "National Weather Service (NWS)",
        "url": "https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-myths",
        "quote": "Lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially if it's a tall, pointy, isolated object. The Empire State Building is hit an average of 23 times a year"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "weather.gov",
          "source_type": "government",
          "tier": 5,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Government domain (.gov)"
        }
      },
      "extraction": {
        "value": "partial",
        "value_in_quote": true,
        "quote_snippet": "Lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially if it's a tall, po"
      }
    },
    "B2": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "NOAA NSSL FAQ: lightning does hit the same spot more than once",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)",
        "url": "https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/lightning/faq/",
        "quote": "Lightning does hit the same spot (or almost the same spot) more than once, contrary to folk wisdom"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "noaa.gov",
          "source_type": "government",
          "tier": 5,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Government domain (.gov)"
        }
      },
      "extraction": {
        "value": "verified",
        "value_in_quote": true,
        "quote_snippet": "Lightning does hit the same spot (or almost the same spot) more than once, contr"
      }
    },
    "B3": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "NASA Spinoff: lightning often strikes the same place twice",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "NASA Spinoff",
        "url": "https://spinoff.nasa.gov/Spinoff2005/ps_3.html",
        "quote": "Contrary to popular misconception, lightning often strikes the same place twice"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "nasa.gov",
          "source_type": "government",
          "tier": 5,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Government domain (.gov)"
        }
      },
      "extraction": {
        "value": "verified",
        "value_in_quote": true,
        "quote_snippet": "Contrary to popular misconception, lightning often strikes the same place twice"
      }
    },
    "B4": {
      "type": "empirical",
      "label": "Britannica: lightning can and will strike the same place twice",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "source": {
        "name": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
        "url": "https://www.britannica.com/story/can-lightning-strike-the-same-place-twice",
        "quote": "lightning can and will strike the same place twice, whether it be during the same storm or even centuries later"
      },
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "full_quote",
        "coverage_pct": null,
        "fetch_mode": "live",
        "credibility": {
          "domain": "britannica.com",
          "source_type": "reference",
          "tier": 3,
          "flags": [],
          "note": "Established reference source"
        }
      },
      "extraction": {
        "value": "verified",
        "value_in_quote": true,
        "quote_snippet": "lightning can and will strike the same place twice, whether it be during the sam"
      }
    },
    "A1": {
      "type": "computed",
      "label": "Verified source count confirming claim is false",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "method": "count(verified citations) = 4",
      "result": "4",
      "depends_on": []
    }
  },
  "cross_checks": [
    {
      "description": "Multiple independent sources consulted",
      "n_sources_consulted": 4,
      "n_sources_verified": 4,
      "sources": {
        "nws_myths": "partial",
        "nssl_faq": "verified",
        "nasa_spinoff": "verified",
        "britannica": "verified"
      },
      "independence_note": "Sources are from 4 different institutions: NWS, NSSL, NASA, Britannica. NWS and NSSL are both NOAA entities but have separate editorial pipelines. NASA and Britannica are fully independent organizations.",
      "fact_ids": []
    }
  ],
  "adversarial_checks": [
    {
      "question": "Is there any scientific evidence supporting the claim that lightning never strikes the same place twice?",
      "verification_performed": "Searched for 'lightning never strikes same place twice any truth defense of saying'. Reviewed results from Britannica, NWS, NOAA, Merriam-Webster, and multiple science education sites.",
      "finding": "No scientific source supports the literal claim. Every authoritative meteorological source explicitly identifies it as a myth. The phrase is recognized only as a metaphorical/idiomatic expression (Merriam-Webster defines it as meaning 'an unusual event is not likely to happen again to the same person or in the same place').",
      "breaks_proof": false
    },
    {
      "question": "Could the claim be interpreted in a more defensible way (e.g., exact same microscopic point)?",
      "verification_performed": "Analyzed whether lightning could be said to never strike the exact same molecular coordinates. Reviewed NSSL FAQ on lightning strike precision.",
      "finding": "Even under the most charitable interpretation, the claim fails. The NSSL notes lightning hits 'the same spot (or almost the same spot)' repeatedly. Lightning channels are meters wide, and the same structures (buildings, towers, trees) are struck thousands of times over their lifetimes. The claim cannot be salvaged by appealing to microscopic precision.",
      "breaks_proof": false
    },
    {
      "question": "Are the sources independently authored or do they all cite the same study?",
      "verification_performed": "Checked provenance of each source: NWS (federal weather safety page), NSSL (federal severe storms research lab), NASA (space technology spinoff article), Britannica (independent encyclopedia). Each is authored by a different organization with independent editorial processes.",
      "finding": "All four sources are from different institutions with independent editorial authority. NWS and NSSL are both NOAA entities but have separate missions and publication pipelines. NASA and Britannica are fully independent.",
      "breaks_proof": false
    }
  ],
  "verdict": {
    "value": "DISPROVED",
    "qualified": false,
    "qualifier": null,
    "reason": null
  },
  "key_results": {
    "n_confirmed": 4,
    "threshold": 3,
    "operator": ">=",
    "claim_holds": true
  },
  "generator": {
    "name": "proof-engine",
    "version": "0.10.0",
    "repo": "https://github.com/yaniv-golan/proof-engine",
    "generated_at": "2026-03-28"
  },
  "proof_py_url": "/proofs/lightning-never-strikes-the-same-place-twice/proof.py",
  "citation": {
    "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.19489858",
    "concept_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.19489857",
    "url": "https://proofengine.info/proofs/lightning-never-strikes-the-same-place-twice/",
    "author": "Proof Engine",
    "cite_bib_url": "/proofs/lightning-never-strikes-the-same-place-twice/cite.bib",
    "cite_ris_url": "/proofs/lightning-never-strikes-the-same-place-twice/cite.ris"
  },
  "depends_on": []
}