{
  "format_version": 3,
  "claim_formal": {
    "subject": "Median net IRR of US venture capital funds with vintage years 2012-2016",
    "property": "Median net Internal Rate of Return as reported by two specific benchmarking firms",
    "operator": "==",
    "operator_note": "The claim asserts two specific empirical figures from two specific named sources: (SC1) Cambridge Associates reports a median net IRR of 16.8% for VC vintage 2012-2016, and (SC2) Preqin reports 18.2% for the same cohort. 'Net IRR' means after management fees and carried interest. 'Vintage year' refers to the year a fund made its first investment. Both Cambridge Associates and Preqin are subscription-only benchmarking databases; their full benchmark tables are not publicly accessible. Verification requires either: (a) a paid subscription to these databases, (b) a publicly available press release or summary report citing these exact figures, or (c) an academic paper reproducing these specific data points with attribution.",
    "threshold": 2,
    "compound_operator": "AND"
  },
  "claim_natural": "Venture capital funds vintage 2012-2016 have a median net IRR of 16.8% according to Cambridge Associates but 18.2% according to Preqin.",
  "evidence": {
    "SC1": {
      "type": "search",
      "label": "Cambridge Associates: median net IRR for VC vintage 2012-2016 = 16.8% \u2014 no public source found",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "search": {}
    },
    "SC2": {
      "type": "search",
      "label": "Preqin: median net IRR for VC vintage 2012-2016 = 18.2% \u2014 no public source found",
      "sub_claim": null,
      "search": {}
    }
  },
  "cross_checks": [],
  "adversarial_checks": [
    {
      "description": "Are Cambridge Associates benchmark figures publicly available at all?",
      "verification_performed": "Searched cambridgeassociates.com/research/ \u2014 the benchmark landing page confirms they publish US PE and VC benchmarks but requires a subscription or institutional access. The Q3 2025 public PDF (ca.com) contains only aggregate 5/10/20-year horizon returns, not per-vintage-year median net IRR tables. No public summary report containing '16.8%' for VC vintage 2012-2016 was found in over 30 URL attempts across CA's site, academic databases (SSRN, NBER), and financial news outlets.",
      "breaks_proof": true
    },
    {
      "description": "Are Preqin benchmark figures publicly available at all?",
      "verification_performed": "Searched preqin.com/benchmarks \u2014 requires login. Searched Preqin press releases and the Preqin Global Alternatives Reports (annual public PDFs): these cite aggregate venture return quartiles but not the specific 18.2% vintage 2012-2016 median net IRR figure. Searched 'Preqin venture 2012 2016 IRR 18.2' in Google and academic databases \u2014 no match found. No public source contains this figure.",
      "breaks_proof": true
    },
    {
      "description": "Do the two figures (16.8% vs 18.2%) appear in any secondary source?",
      "verification_performed": "Searched for the specific pairing '16.8% Cambridge Associates' and '18.2% Preqin' in financial literature. No secondary source reproduces both figures together for VC vintage 2012-2016. The figures may be correct but originate from proprietary database downloads that are not publicly citable. The 1.4 percentage-point gap is plausible given known methodology differences (CA uses cash-on-cash timing; Preqin uses its own fund database with different fund universe and valuation timing).",
      "breaks_proof": true
    }
  ],
  "verdict": {
    "value": "UNDETERMINED",
    "qualified": false,
    "qualifier": null,
    "reason": null
  },
  "key_results": {
    "sc1_cambridge_confirmed": false,
    "sc2_preqin_confirmed": false,
    "claim_holds": false
  },
  "generator": {
    "name": "proof-engine",
    "version": "1.11.0",
    "repo": "https://github.com/yaniv-golan/proof-engine",
    "generated_at": "2026-04-08"
  },
  "sub_claim_results": {
    "sc1": {
      "description": "Cambridge Associates reports 16.8% median net IRR for VC vintage 2012-2016",
      "n_confirmed": 0,
      "threshold": 1,
      "holds": false
    },
    "sc2": {
      "description": "Preqin reports 18.2% median net IRR for VC vintage 2012-2016",
      "n_confirmed": 0,
      "threshold": 1,
      "holds": false
    }
  },
  "verdict_reason": "Both sub-claims rely on proprietary subscription-only databases (Cambridge Associates and Preqin). No publicly accessible source was found that reproduces the specific figures (16.8% and 18.2%) for VC vintage 2012-2016. Verification would require paid access to these benchmarking services.",
  "proof_py_url": "/proofs/venture-capital-funds-vintage-2012-2016-have-a-median-net-irr-of-16-8-according/proof.py",
  "citation": {
    "doi": null,
    "concept_doi": null,
    "url": "https://proofengine.info/proofs/venture-capital-funds-vintage-2012-2016-have-a-median-net-irr-of-16-8-according/",
    "author": "Proof Engine",
    "cite_bib_url": "/proofs/venture-capital-funds-vintage-2012-2016-have-a-median-net-irr-of-16-8-according/cite.bib",
    "cite_ris_url": "/proofs/venture-capital-funds-vintage-2012-2016-have-a-median-net-irr-of-16-8-according/cite.ris"
  },
  "depends_on": []
}