"Sequoia Capital manages over $100 billion in assets under management (AUM), with an average fund multiple exceeding 4x net returns to investors."

"""
Proof: Sequoia Capital manages over $100 billion in AUM with an average fund multiple exceeding 4x net

Claim: Sequoia Capital manages over $100 billion in assets under management (AUM),
with an average fund multiple exceeding 4x net returns to investors.

Generated: 2026-04-08
"""
import os
import sys

PROOF_ENGINE_ROOT = os.environ.get("PROOF_ENGINE_ROOT")
if not PROOF_ENGINE_ROOT:
    _d = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
    while _d != os.path.dirname(_d):
        if os.path.isdir(os.path.join(_d, "proof-engine", "skills", "proof-engine", "scripts")):
            PROOF_ENGINE_ROOT = os.path.join(_d, "proof-engine", "skills", "proof-engine")
            break
        _d = os.path.dirname(_d)
    if not PROOF_ENGINE_ROOT:
        raise RuntimeError("PROOF_ENGINE_ROOT not set and skill dir not found via walk-up from proof.py")
sys.path.insert(0, PROOF_ENGINE_ROOT)

from scripts.extract_values import parse_number_from_quote
from scripts.verify_citations import verify_all_citations, build_citation_detail
from scripts.computations import compare, explain_calc, apply_verdict_qualifier, emit_proof_summary

# =============================================================================
# 1. CLAIM INTERPRETATION (Rule 4)
# =============================================================================
CLAIM_NATURAL = (
    "Sequoia Capital manages over $100 billion in assets under management (AUM), "
    "with an average fund multiple exceeding 4x net returns to investors."
)

CLAIM_FORMAL = {
    "subject": "Sequoia Capital",
    "property": "Total AUM and average net fund multiple",
    "operator": "compound",
    "compound_operator": "AND",
    "operator_note": (
        "SC1: Sequoia Capital manages over $100 billion AUM in total. "
        "Complexity: In 2021, Sequoia split into three independent entities — "
        "Sequoia Capital (US/Europe), HongShan (China, formerly Sequoia China), "
        "and Peak XV Partners (India/Southeast Asia). "
        "The 'Sequoia Capital' brand now refers primarily to the US/Europe entity. "
        "Wikipedia cites the US/Europe entity AUM as $56.3 billion (2024). "
        "If counting all three successor entities: US/Europe ~$56.3B + HongShan ~$56B "
        "+ Peak XV ~$9B = ~$121B combined, which exceeds $100B. "
        "If counting only the US/Europe entity, $56.3B does NOT exceed $100B. "
        "SC2: Average fund multiple > 4x net returns to investors. "
        "VC fund return data is generally not publicly disclosed. "
        "Sequoia is widely regarded as one of the top-performing VC firms, "
        "but specific average net MOIC data is not publicly available. "
        "Press reports cite specific standout fund multiples but not verified averages."
    ),
    "threshold_sc1_usd_B": 100.0,  # > $100B AUM
    "threshold_sc2_moic": 4.0,     # > 4x net MOIC average
}

# =============================================================================
# 2. EMPIRICAL FACTS — SC1: Sequoia AUM
# =============================================================================
empirical_facts = {
    "B1": {
        "source_name": (
            "Wikipedia: Sequoia Capital — AUM figure for US/Europe entity (2024)"
        ),
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequoia_Capital",
        "quote": (
            "AUM US$ 56.3 billion (2024)"
        ),
    },
    "B2": {
        "source_name": (
            "Wikipedia: HongShan — formerly Sequoia China, now independent entity"
        ),
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HongShan",
        "quote": (
            "Assets under management US$56 billion"
        ),
    },
    "B3": {
        "source_name": (
            "Wikipedia: Peak XV Partners — formerly Sequoia India/Southeast Asia"
        ),
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_XV_Partners",
        "quote": (
            "Assets under management US$9 billion"
        ),
    },
}

citation_results = verify_all_citations(empirical_facts)

# =============================================================================
# 3. EXTRACT VALUES AND COMPUTE (Rules 1 & 7)
# =============================================================================
# SC1: AUM figures from Wikipedia
aum_us_europe = parse_number_from_quote(
    empirical_facts["B1"]["quote"], pattern=r"US\$\s*([\d.]+)\s*billion"
)
print(f"B1: Sequoia US/Europe AUM: ${aum_us_europe:.1f}B")

aum_hongshan = parse_number_from_quote(
    empirical_facts["B2"]["quote"], pattern=r"US\$([\d.]+)\s*billion"
)
print(f"B2: HongShan AUM: ${aum_hongshan:.1f}B")

aum_peak_xv = parse_number_from_quote(
    empirical_facts["B3"]["quote"], pattern=r"US\$([\d.]+)\s*billion"
)
print(f"B3: Peak XV AUM: ${aum_peak_xv:.1f}B")

# Combined AUM of all three successor entities
aum_combined = explain_calc(
    "aum_us_europe + aum_hongshan + aum_peak_xv",
    {"aum_us_europe": aum_us_europe, "aum_hongshan": aum_hongshan, "aum_peak_xv": aum_peak_xv},
    label="SC1: Combined AUM of all three Sequoia successor entities (USD billions)"
)

print(f"Combined AUM (all entities): ${aum_combined:.1f}B")

# SC1 evaluation — only holds if counting all three successor entities
sc1_us_only = compare(aum_us_europe, ">", CLAIM_FORMAL["threshold_sc1_usd_B"],
                      label="SC1: US/Europe entity alone > $100B")
sc1_combined = compare(aum_combined, ">", CLAIM_FORMAL["threshold_sc1_usd_B"],
                       label="SC1: All successor entities combined > $100B")

# SC2: No public data available
# Sequoia's fund returns are not disclosed publicly
# The claim of ">4x net average" is not supported by any verified public source
n_confirmed_sc2 = 0  # No public sources for average net MOIC
sc2_threshold = 1

sc2_holds = compare(n_confirmed_sc2, ">=", sc2_threshold,
                    label="SC2: Average net fund multiple > 4x confirmed by public sources")

# =============================================================================
# 4. ADVERSARIAL CHECKS (Rule 5)
# =============================================================================
adversarial_checks = [
    {
        "description": "The US/Europe Sequoia entity alone has only $56.3B AUM (< $100B)",
        "verification_performed": (
            "Wikipedia's Sequoia Capital article (the US/Europe entity) cites $56.3 billion AUM "
            "as of 2024. The original Sequoia Capital split in 2021-2023 into three independent "
            "entities. The US/Europe entity at $56.3B does not exceed $100B on its own. "
            "The $100B threshold is only reached by combining all three successor entities "
            "(US/Europe + HongShan China + Peak XV India/SEA = ~$121B). "
            "Whether 'Sequoia Capital' in the claim refers to the single US/Europe entity "
            "or all successor entities is ambiguous — and this ambiguity is material because "
            "it determines whether SC1 holds."
        ),
        "breaks_proof": True,
    },
    {
        "description": "Average net fund multiple > 4x is not publicly documented",
        "verification_performed": (
            "Searched for 'Sequoia Capital average fund multiple net returns', "
            "'Sequoia Capital net MOIC', 'Sequoia Capital fund performance history'. "
            "Found: Sequoia is consistently ranked among the top-performing VC firms, "
            "with specific funds cited in press coverage (e.g., Sequoia Capital Global "
            "Equities fund launched in 2021). However, no public source provides a verified "
            "average net MOIC across all Sequoia funds. VC fund return data is not publicly "
            "disclosed unless reported in LP meeting presentations. Cambridge Associates and "
            "Preqin track this data but require paid subscriptions. The '>4x net' claim "
            "cannot be verified from public sources."
        ),
        "breaks_proof": True,
    },
    {
        "description": "Sequoia has both top-performing funds and below-average ones",
        "verification_performed": (
            "While Sequoia's iconic early bets (Apple, Google, Cisco, WhatsApp, Zoom, Airbnb) "
            "generated outsized returns, any calculation of 'average fund multiple' must include "
            "all funds, including newer and underperforming vintages. The Cambridge Associates "
            "benchmark for top-quartile VC funds (1985-2015 vintages) is typically 2-3x net TVPI. "
            "A '4x net average' would require Sequoia to consistently perform at 2x the "
            "top-quartile benchmark, which is plausible for their marquee funds but unverified "
            "as an average across their full fund history."
        ),
        "breaks_proof": True,
    },
]

any_breaks = any(c["breaks_proof"] for c in adversarial_checks)

# =============================================================================
# 5. VERDICT
# =============================================================================
# SC1: Holds only when combining all three post-split entities (combined ~$121B > $100B)
# SC2: No public data → not confirmed
# Result: PARTIALLY VERIFIED — SC1 supported with interpretation caveat, SC2 not supported

any_unverified = any(
    v.get("status") not in ("found", "partial")
    for v in citation_results.values()
    if isinstance(v, dict)
)

if sc1_combined and sc2_holds and not any_breaks:
    base_verdict = "PROVED"
elif sc1_combined and not sc2_holds:
    base_verdict = "PARTIALLY VERIFIED"
else:
    base_verdict = "PARTIALLY VERIFIED"

VERDICT = apply_verdict_qualifier(base_verdict, any_unverified)

verdict_holds = compare(int(sc1_combined and not any_breaks), ">=", 1,
                        label="Overall verdict holds (SC1 combined + no fatal breaks)")

# =============================================================================
# 6. FACT REGISTRY
# =============================================================================
FACT_REGISTRY = {
    "B1": {"key": "B1", "label": f"Wikipedia: Sequoia Capital US/Europe AUM = ${aum_us_europe:.1f}B (2024)"},
    "B2": {"key": "B2", "label": f"Wikipedia: HongShan (formerly Sequoia China) AUM = ${aum_hongshan:.0f}B"},
    "B3": {"key": "B3", "label": f"Wikipedia: Peak XV Partners (formerly Sequoia India/SEA) AUM = ${aum_peak_xv:.0f}B"},
}

# =============================================================================
# 7. JSON SUMMARY
# =============================================================================
if __name__ == "__main__":
    citation_detail = build_citation_detail(FACT_REGISTRY, citation_results, empirical_facts)

    summary = {
        "claim_natural": CLAIM_NATURAL,
        "claim_formal": CLAIM_FORMAL,
        "fact_registry": FACT_REGISTRY,
        "sub_claim_results": {
            "sc1": {
                "description": "Sequoia manages over $100B AUM",
                "us_europe_only_B": round(aum_us_europe, 1),
                "combined_all_entities_B": round(aum_combined, 1),
                "us_only_holds": sc1_us_only,
                "combined_holds": sc1_combined,
                "interpretation_note": (
                    "The $100B threshold is only crossed when combining all three successor "
                    "entities (US/Europe + HongShan + Peak XV). The US/Europe entity alone "
                    "($56.3B) does not exceed the threshold."
                ),
            },
            "sc2": {
                "description": "Average fund multiple > 4x net",
                "n_confirmed": n_confirmed_sc2,
                "threshold": sc2_threshold,
                "holds": sc2_holds,
                "note": "No public data available — VC fund returns are not publicly disclosed",
            },
        },
        "citations": citation_detail,
        "adversarial_checks": adversarial_checks,
        "verdict": VERDICT,
                "verdict_reason": (
            "SC1 (>$100B AUM) holds when counting all three post-split successor entities "
            "($56.3B + $56B + $9B = $121.3B), but not when counting only the US/Europe entity. "
            "SC2 (>4x net average MOIC) cannot be verified — no public data exists. "
            "The claim is PARTIALLY VERIFIED: the AUM figure is supportable under a broad "
            "interpretation, but the fund multiple figure lacks public evidence."
        ),
        "key_results": {
            "aum_us_europe_B": round(aum_us_europe, 1),
            "aum_combined_B": round(aum_combined, 1),
            "threshold_B": CLAIM_FORMAL["threshold_sc1_usd_B"],
            "sc1_us_only": sc1_us_only,
            "sc1_combined": sc1_combined,
            "claim_holds": sc1_combined and sc2_holds and not any_breaks,
        },
        "generator": {
            "name": "proof-engine",
            "version": "1.11.0",
            "repo": "https://github.com/yaniv-golan/proof-engine",
            "generated_at": "2026-04-08",
        },
    }
    emit_proof_summary(summary)